This post summarizes a paper written by Mahito Uchida, in Revue de l’OFCE, n° 135.
With the arrival of Shinzo Abe at the end of 2012, Japan’s economic policy started clearly focusing on the risk of deflation. This new policy combines a highly accommodative monetary policy with a fiscal stimulus based on public investment. In an article published by the OFCE, Mahito Uchida of SEIJO University, analyses the first stage of implementation of the new Japanese monetary policy. In that paper, Mahito Uchida investigates the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy effects under Abenomics at the initial stage. First, he describes briefly what is “Abenomics” and “New monetary policy under Abenomics” since April 2013. He also examines the causes of the sharp response of the yen and Japanese stock prices, the increase in consumer price index and the change in public’s expectations of the economic activity and prices from surveys. In the second part he explains why the new monetary policy was effective in 2013, comparing the previous policy until 2012. Although there is not much difference between monetary policies before and after 2012 theoretically, he points out the importance of the strong commitment by central bank, the cooperation with the government and “psychological impact” on public. The third part discusses the durability of the new monetary policy. The policy effects will be sustainable if a price becomes lastingly positive, which needs a durably positive output gap. Therefore, Abenomics’ growth strategy plays an important role. He also points out that the BOJ has to perform the policy over side effects such as the impact on the government bond markets, the impact on other financial markets and on capital flows overseas.