The industrialized countries are experiencing what seems to be a persistent slowdown in the growth of labour productivity since the second oil shock. This has been the subject of a great deal of analysis in the economic literature that considers the possible disappearance of the growth potential of the developed economies, and consequently their inability to return to a level of activity in line with their pre-crisis trajectories. In other words, could the industrialized countries have entered a phase of “secular stagnation”, making it more difficult to reduce public and private debt? The exhaustion of gains in productivity would also modify any diagnosis made of their conjunctural situation, particularly as regards their labour markets. Continue reading “Which new path for raising labour productivity?”
par Bruno Ducoudré
L’été 2017 a été marqué, sur le plan des politiques de l’emploi, par un changement de stratégie majeur du nouveau gouvernement par rapport au précédent quinquennat. La nouvelle politique de l’emploi donne désormais la priorité à la formation et à l’accompagnement des jeunes NEET (Not in Education, Employment or Training – ni en étude, emploi, ou stage) et des chômeurs les plus éloignés du marché du travail, et délaisse les contrats aidés comme outil de traitement du chômage. Cette nouvelle stratégie s’est opérée en deux temps. Premièrement le gouvernement a annoncé cet été qu’il n’y aurait pas de rallonge pour les contrats aidés au deuxième semestre et que le nombre de contrats prévus pour 2018 serait en forte baisse par rapport aux années précédentes. Continue reading “Fin de partie pour les contrats aidés”
In the course of the crisis, most European countries reduced actual working time to a greater or lesser extent by making use of partial unemployment schemes, the reduction of overtime or the use of time savings accounts, but also through the expansion of part-time work (particularly in Italy and Spain), including involuntary part-time work. In contrast, the favourable trend in US unemployment is explained in part by a significant fall in the participation rate. Continue reading “Labour force participation rates and working time: differentiated adjustments”
par Bruno Ducoudré
Contre toute attente, le taux de chômage au sens du BIT pour le troisième trimestre 2017 a augmenté de 0,2 point. Dans notre dernier exercice de prévisions pour l’économie française, nous avions prévu une stabilité du taux de chômage, en soulignant toutefois les risques qui pèsent sur son évolution au deuxième semestre 2017 et pour l’année 2018. Dans ce billet, nous revenons sur notre prévision d’emploi et de chômage pour 2017-2019 et sur les risques d’observer un coup d’arrêt à la baisse du taux de chômage en 2018. Continue reading “2018 : baisse du chômage non garantie”
According to figures from the French statistics institute (INSEE) published on 12 May 2017, non-agricultural commercial employment in France increased (+0.3%) in the first quarter of 2017 for the eighth consecutive quarter. Employment rose by 198,300 in one year. Despite the improvement on the jobs front experienced since 2015, the impact of the crisis is still lingering. Continue reading “Beyond the unemployment rate. An international comparison since the crisis”
A look at the figures just published by France’s Pôle Emploi job centre for the month of September 2015 shows that the number of job seekers who were registered and inactive (category A) has declined significantly (-23,800), following an increase in August (+20,000). While this is encouraging news, the decrease has to be compared with the increases seen in categories B and C (+25,600). So while employment has indeed picked up, this has not resulted in the numbers of people exiting unemployment as measured by the job centre, i.e. it has not put a stop to the continuing rise in the number of long-term unemployed (+10.4% in one year). Nevertheless, these trends do support the conclusions drawn from current analysis which indicate that a recovery has indeed begun. Continue reading “The labour market on the road to recovery”
This text summarizes the OFCE’s economic forecast for the French economy for 2015-2017
After a hesitant upturn in the first half of 2015 (with growth rates of 0.7% and 0% respectively in the first and second quarter), the French economy grew slowly in the second half year, with GDP rising by an average of 1.1% for the year as a whole. With a GDP growth rate of 0.3% in the third quarter of 2015 and 0.4% in the fourth quarter, which was equal to the pace of potential growth, the unemployment rate stabilized at 10% at year end. Household consumption (+1.7% in 2015) was boosted by the recovery in purchasing power due in particular to lower oil prices, which will prop up growth in 2015, but the situation of investment by households (-3.6%) and the public administration (-2.6%) will continue to hold back activity. In a context of sluggish growth and moderate fiscal consolidation, the government deficit will continue to fall slowly, to 3.7% of GDP in 2015. Continue reading “2015-2017 forecasts for the French economy”
This text draws on the special study, Équations d’investissement : une comparaison internationale dans la crise [Investment equations : an international comparison during the crisis], which accompanies the 2015-2016 Forecast for the euro zone and the rest of the world.
The collapse in growth following the subprime crisis in late 2008 resulted in a decline in corporate investment, the largest since World War II in the advanced economies. The stimulus packages and accommodative monetary policies implemented in 2009-2010 nevertheless managed to halt the collapse in demand, and corporate investment rebounded significantly in every country up to the end of 2011. But since 2011 investment has followed varied trajectories in the different countries, as can be seen in the differences between, on the one hand, the United States and the United Kingdom, and on the other the euro zone countries, Italy and Spain in particular. At end 2014, business investment was still 27% below its pre-crisis peak in Italy, 23% down in Spain, 7% in France and 3% in Germany. In the US and the UK, business investment was 7% and 5% higher than the pre-crisis peaks (Figure). Continue reading “Investment behaviour during the crisis: a comparative analysis of the main advanced economies”
Two days following the announcement by France’s unemployment agency Pôle Emploi of an increase in Class A job seeker registrations in April, which comes on top of a first quarter increase, the INSEE statistics agency has published its estimate of the unemployment rate. Under the definition of the International Labour Office (ILO), the unemployment rate in metropolitan France fell by 0.1 point in the first quarter of 2015, meaning 38,000 fewer unemployed than in the fourth quarter of 2014. But according to Pôle emploi, over this same period the number of registered Class A job seekers rose by 12,000. In one case, unemployment is falling; in the other, it is rising: this does not make for a clear diagnosis of what’s happening with unemployment at the start of the year.
What accounts for the different diagnoses of the INSEE and Pôle Emploi? Continue reading “A fall in the unemployment rate according to the ILO: the false good news”
This text is based on the special study of the same name [Pétrole : du carbone pour la croissance, in French] that accompanies the OFCE’s 2015-2016 Forecast for the euro zone and the rest of the world.
The 50% fall in the price of Brent between summer 2014 and January 2015 and its continuing low level over the following months is good news for oil-importing economies. In a context of weak growth, this has resulted in a transfer of wealth to the benefit of the net importing countries through the trade balance, which is stimulating growth and fuelling a recovery. Lower oil prices are boosting household purchasing power and driving a rise in consumption and investment in a context where companies’ production costs are down. This has stimulated exports, with the additional demand from other oil-importing economies more than offsetting the slowdown seen in the exporting economies. Continue reading “Oil: carbon for growth”