By Catherine Mathieu and Henri Sterdyniak

As of early 2013, it is possible to make two contrasting assessments of the crisis. On the one hand, the euro has survived. Europe’s institutions and Member states have of course been slow and hesitant to react, and their reluctance has often fueled speculation. But its institutions have gradually managed to develop solidarity mechanisms, such as the European Financial Stability Facility and then the European Stability Mechanism, and they were able to impose strong fiscal discipline on Member states (strengthening the Stability and Growth Pact, adjustment programs, fiscal treaty).

The Member states have agreed to implement austerity policies and structural reforms. From the beginning of the crisis, the European Central Bank was willing to put in place unconventional policies, and it has supported the public debt of countries in difficulty by intervening in the secondary markets. It then undertook to commit unlimited resources to support countries in trouble that implemented satisfactory policies, which helped to reassure the financial markets and to lower risk premiums.

On the other hand, the euro zone has been unable to regain a satisfactory level of growth or to recover the 9 points of activity lost to the crisis. The Member states have been forced to implement austerity policies during a recession. According to the outlook of the Commission itself, the unemployment rate is expected to stay at about 11.8% in 2013. Imbalances between countries persist, even if they are somewhat mitigated by the deep depression that has engulfed the countries of southern Europe. The rigid standards that have been imposed on the Member states, with no real economic foundation, cannot replace the genuine coordination of economic policies. The solidarity mechanisms implemented are conditional on the loss of any autonomy and the introduction of drastic austerity policies. In the future, national policies will be paralyzed by European constraints and by the threats of the financial markets. Social Europe is not making progress, and, even worse, Europe is requiring countries in difficulty to call into question universal health care and to cut pension, unemployment and family benefits. Tax competition is continuing, and the crisis has not been seen as a time to challenge tax havens and tax evasion. While Europe is at the forefront of the fight against climate change, it is hesitating to make a robust commitment to the ecological transition. Although many countries in the area are suffering from continuing deindustrialization, no industrial policy has been implemented. A banking union will be established, but its content is not being democratically decided. The European authorities are persisting in a strategy – paralyzing national policies and imposing free market structural reforms – which has so far failed to boost growth and has made Europe unpopular. Europe is sorely lacking a socially unifying project, an economic strategy and a means of functioning democratically.

* Issue 127 of the “Debates et Politics” collection of the Revue de l’OFCE, which appeared in January, contains analyses that provide contrasting insights into the origins of the euro zone crisis and into strategies for resolving the crisis. This issue brings together twelve papers following the 9th EUROFRAME conference [1] in June 2012 on issues concerning the European Union’s economic policy.

[1] EUROFRAME is a network of European economic institutes, which includes: the DIW and IFW (Germany), WIFO (Austria), ETLA (Finland), OFCE (France), ESRI (Ireland), PROMETEIA (Italy), CPB (Netherlands), CASE (Poland) and NIESR (United Kingdom).

By Catherine Mathieu and Henri Sterdyniak

The 9th EUROFRAME Conference [1], which was held in Kiel on 8 June 2012, focused on economic policy issues in the European Union. The topic was “The euro zone in crisis: Challenges for monetary and fiscal policies”. Issue 127 of the “Débats et Politiques” collection of the OFCE Revue has published revised versions of twelve papers presented in the Conference[2], gathered in five themes: exchange rate imbalances, indicators of the debt crisis, budget rules, banking and financial issues, and strategies for resolving the crisis.

The analysis of the origins of the euro zone crisis and economic policy recommendations to get out of the crisis have been the subject of great debate among economists, which was illustrated in the EUROFRAME Conference. In the course of these articles, the reader will see several fault-lines:

– For some, it is the irresponsible policies of the South that are the cause of the imbalances: they have allowed the development of wage and property bubbles, while the Northern countries have been implementing virtuous policies of wage austerity and structural reform. The Southern countries thus need to adopt the North’s strategy and undergo a lengthy austerity cure. For others, the single currency has led to the development of twin opposing imbalances: this has led to under-valuing the economies of the North, which enabled them to offset their excessive policies on wage and social austerity with excessive external surpluses, and it has allowed the persistence of the South’s external deficits; this has resulted in the need for a controlled convergence, whereby recovery in the North facilitates the absorption of the South’s external imbalances.

– Some argue that each country must implement policies that combine a strong reduction in public spending – to absorb the budget deficits and reduce the public debt burden – with structural reforms (liberalization of the markets for goods and services, deregulation of the labour market) in order to offset the depressive effect on the labour market. The financial markets have to be allowed to impose the necessary discipline on the countries. Others hold that the public deficits have to be tolerated as long as necessary to support economic activity, public debt needs to be guaranteed by the European Central Bank (ECB) to ensure that domestic interest rates converge at low rates, and an EU-wide growth strategy is needed (in particular to finance the investments required for the ecological transition).

– Some even believe that we must avoid any further extension of European solidarity, as it would enable some countries to put off the reforms needed, which would lead to persistent imbalances and thus to money creation and inflation. Others argue that errors have been made on economic policy since the inception of the euro zone, and that these have led to sharp disparities in the zone, which now need to be reduced by means of a coherent solidarity strategy. Europe is one big family and must demonstrate its solidarity and accept compromises to continue to live together.

– For some, ending the debt crisis of the euro zone countries requires the establishment of a fiscal union, which means the establishment of binding rules enshrined in the Fiscal Pact and a certain degree of fiscal federalism; the European Commission and Council should have a say on the fiscal policies of the Member States. Others think that the Member States should have a degree of autonomy to practice the fiscal policy they choose; this is a matter of both democracy and economic efficiency: the economic situations of the different countries are too diverse to invoke a uniform fiscal policy; what is needed is the open coordination of economic policy, without rigid pre-established standards on public finances, with the aim of ensuring satisfactory growth and the winding down of external imbalances.

[1] EUROFRAME is a network of European economic institutes, which includes: the DIW and IFW (Germany), WIFO (Austria), ETLA (Finland), OFCE (France), ESRI (Ireland), PROMETEIA (Italy), CPB (Netherlands), CASE (Poland), NIESR (United Kingdom).

[2] Ten of which are in English and two in French.