2015-2017 forecasts for the French economy

By Mathieu PlaneBruno DucoudréPierre Madec, Hervé Péléraux and Raul Sampognaro

This text summarizes the OFCE’s economic forecast for the French economy for 2015-2017

After a hesitant upturn in the first half of 2015 (with growth rates of 0.7% and 0% respectively in the first and second quarter), the French economy grew slowly in the second half year, with GDP rising by an average of 1.1% for the year as a whole. With a GDP growth rate of 0.3% in the third quarter of 2015 and 0.4% in the fourth quarter, which was equal to the pace of potential growth, the unemployment rate stabilized at 10% at year end. Household consumption (+1.7% in 2015) was boosted by the recovery in purchasing power due in particular to lower oil prices, which will prop up growth in 2015, but the situation of investment by households (-3.6%) and the public administration (-2.6%) will continue to hold back activity. In a context of sluggish growth and moderate fiscal consolidation, the government deficit will continue to fall slowly, to 3.7% of GDP in 2015. Continue reading “2015-2017 forecasts for the French economy”

Share Button

Monetary policy: Open-Market Operations or Open-Mouth Operations?

By Paul Hubert

Can the communications of a central banker influence agents’ expectations in the same way as they change interest rates? To believe Ben Bernanke, the answer is yes. Continue reading “Monetary policy: Open-Market Operations or Open-Mouth Operations?”

Share Button

Can the central banks influence the expectations of private agents?

By Paul Hubert

Can the forecasts of a central bank influence the expectations of private agents, and if so what are the reasons for this? A few hours after the press conferences of Ben Bernanke and Mario Draghi, here are some explanations. Continue reading “Can the central banks influence the expectations of private agents?”

Share Button