Elections and the (first) derivative of unemployment: the turnaround strategy

By Guillaume Allègre, g_allegre

A ministerial adviser recently explained to me what he thinks is the strategy of the French President on macroeconomic management and unemployment, which could be called a turnaround strategy: “In relation to the presidential elections, the goal is to reduce unemployment in 2016-2017. The way people vote is based on the way unemployment has been changing just in the last year or even the last 6 months. Like for Jospin in 2002.” The belief that for unemployment and the economy in general what counts is the derivative, i.e. the recent evolution and not the actual level, has deep roots in the technocratic-political milieu: “it’s the derivative, stupid!” is the new “it’s the economy, stupid!“ (the maxim of Bill Clinton’s election strategist in 1992). Continue reading “Elections and the (first) derivative of unemployment: the turnaround strategy”

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