PUBLICATIONS | Policy Briefs

 

 

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23 November 2023

Under Threat of Unemploymen
2023-2024 Outlook for the French economy

OFCE Analysis and Forecasting Department, Éric Heyer (dir.) and Xavier Timbeau (dir.)


In 2023, with inflation still high (+5.2% in 2023, as in 2022) and a context marked by a sharp rise in key ECB interest rates, France's GDP will grow by 0.9%.
2024 should see falling inflation (3.3% annual average and 2.3% year-on-year at year-end), but growth will remain modest (0.8%) as hikes in the key interest rates take full effect...

26 June 2023

Ideas Without Scale in French Artificial Intelligence Innovations

Johanna Deperi, Ludovic Dibiaggio, Mohamed Keita, Lionel Nesta



Artificial intelligence (AI) is viewed as the next technological revolution. The aim of this Policy Brief is to identify France's strengths and weaknesses in this great race for AI innovation. We characterise France's positioning relative to other key players and make the following observations:
1. Without being a world leader in innovation incorporating artificial intelligence, France is showing moderate but significant activity in this field.
2...

22 October 2021

Public debt in the 21st century: An analysis of public debt dynamics with Debtwatch

Xavier Timbeau, Elliot Aurissergues, Eric Heyer


We propose a definition of public debt sustainability based on the possibility of conducting a fiscal effort or giving support to a macroeconomic path that makes it possible to reach a public debt target over a given horizon.
The concepts of a fiscal effort and a macroeconomic trajectory are both speculative, as they rely on the anticipation of unknown futures...

09 March 2021

More or less public debt in France ?

Xavier Ragot


The purpose of this Policy brief is to present an estimate of the fiscal space for a new stimulus plan in France that takes fully into account the impact of the low interest rate environment.
Negative rates should lead to a different way to measure the public debt, a method that complements the Maastricht measurement...

06 July 2020

Firm liquidity and solvency under the Covid-19 lockdown in France

Mattia Guerini, Lionel Nesta, Xavier Ragot, Stefano Schiavo


We simulate the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on corporate solvency using a sample of around one million French nonfinancial companies, assuming they minimize their production costs in the context of a sharp drop in demand. 
We find that the lockdown triggers an unprecedented increase in the share of illiquid and insolvent firms, with the former more than doubling relative to a No-Covid scenario (growing from 3.8% to more than 10%) and insolvencies increasing by 80% (from 1.8% to...

18 June 2020

How to spend it: A proposal for a European Covid-19 recovery programme

Jérôme Creel, Mario Holzner, Francesco Saraceno, Andrew Watt, Jérôme Wittwe


The Recovery Fund recently proposed by the EU Commission marks a sea-change in European integration. Yet it will not be enough to meet the challenges Europe faces. There has been much public debate about financing, but little about the sort of concrete projects that the EU should be putting public money into.
Here we propose a 10-year, €2tn investment programme focusing on public health, transport infrastructure and energy/decarbonisation. 
It consists of two pillars...

08 June 2020

Setting New Priorities for the ECB's Mandate

Christophe Blot, Jérôme Creel, Emmanuelle Faure, Paul Hubert


- In a statement announcing the review of its monetary policy strategy, the European Central Bank (ECB) stated that it will, in addition to price stability, also take into account how “other considerations, such as financial stability, employment and environmental sustainability, can be relevant in pursuing the ECB's mandate”...

28 January 2020

The European Green Deal: Bring back the new

Éloi Laurent



On December 11 2019, the European Commission released a communication outlining a blueprint for a “European Green Deal”. To clarify its scope and limits, this Policy brief offers a critical examination of the main concepts that underpin and frame it: carbon neutrality, decoupling, resource efficiency, inclusive growth and just transition...

09 January 2020

Normalized average borrowing from the rest of the world against normalized primary deficit

Paul Malliet


Dans un contexte où l'humanité doit réduire drastiquement ses émissions de gaz à effet de serre afin de limiter la hausse des températures, la mesure des émissions carbone est devenue un enjeu essentiel du XXIe siècle...

16 December 2019

Has the ECB lost its mind?

Christophe Blot, Paul Hubert


This Policy brief analyses the recent expansionary decisions of the ECB in September 2019, which are now under scrutiny and have even been criticized.
Recent facts confirm the need of an expansionary monetary policy, as inflation expectations are still decreasing and credit remains weak.
We pay a special attention to the three types of risk evoked in the public debate.
First, it has been argued that low interest rates could increase the households saving rate due to an...

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