The weakness of the recovery in 2014 and 2015 raises the need for a structural re-examination of the state of Franceâ€™s productive fabric. Indeed, an analysis of investment dynamics, the trade balance, productivity gains and business margins, and to a lesser extent companiesâ€™ access to credit, indicates the existence of some disturbing trends since the early noughties. In addition, the persistence of the crisis inevitably poses the question of the unravelling of Franceâ€™s productive fabric since 2007 due to a combination of low growth, weak investment and numerous bankruptcies.
The contributions gathered in Revue de lâ€™OFCEÂ no.142 have a double ambition: first, to put Franceâ€™s businesses and economic sectors at the heart of reflection about the ins and outs of the current slowdown in growth, and second, to question the basis for theoretical analyses of future growth in light of the situation of France and Europe. Based on the various contributions, nine conclusions emerge: suite…»
The recent law on “the energy transition to green growth”, promulgated on 17 August 2015, plans for a fall in nuclear energyâ€™s share of electricity production from 75% to 50% by 2025. It also caps the power of the countryâ€™s nuclear plants at 63.2 GW. This limit corresponds to current capacity and implies that any new reactor start-up (Flamanville, for example) must result in the closure of a reactor with equivalent power. The decision to postpone the expected closure of the Fessenheim plant comes under this and is now part of this energy equilibrium. The conditioning of the closure of Fessenheim is provoking discontent among all those who believed in the unconditional pledge of Francois Hollande during his presidential campaign. suite…»
By Eloi Laurent
Climate negotiations cannot be limited to technical discussions between experts about the reliability of scientific data: they need to take the form of an open political dialogue that is nourished by ethical reflection involving the citizens. What should be the focus of this dialogue? With COP 21 opening in two months in Paris, it is becoming increasingly clear that the key to a possible agreement is not economic efficiency, but social justice. The “green growth” that was a goal in the past century has little mobilizing power in a world plagued by injustice. It is much more important to highlight the potential that resolute action against climate change holds for equality at the national and global level. suite…»
By JĂ©rĂ´me Creel, Paul Hubert, Fabien Labondance
Since the mini-crash that took place in the Shanghai stock market in August, financial instability has resurfaced in the markets and the media and, once again, the link with financialisation has been evoked. The Chinese crisis resulted from a combination of real estate and stock market bubbles that were fed by the abundant savings of a middle class in search of high-yield investments. It feels like weâ€™ve gone back almost ten years when what is considered the excessive financialisation of the US economy â€“ with abundant savings from the emerging countries enabling the build-up of widespread US consumer debt â€“ is treated as the cause of the financial instability and crisis that was triggered in the summer of 2007. suite…»
Analysis and Forecasting Department (France team)
The figures for the month of August 2015 published by Franceâ€™s PĂ´le Emploi job centre show a significant increase in the number of people registered as Category A (+20,000), i.e. an additional 156,000 job seekers over one year, following two months of relative stability. While this figure is undoubtedly disappointing, the uncertainty surrounding monthly fluctuations in enrolment at the job centre should not be forgotten. Despite the downturn in the numbers registered in categories B and C in the last month (-11,600), the number of job seekers who have carried out an active job search has risen by nearly 332,000 since August 2014.
This figure nuances the publication of the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Office (ILO), which gives a less negative image of the French labour market. This statistic points to a slight fall in the unemployment rate in the first six months (-0.1 point), largely due to shrinkage of the labor force (-0.2 point). suite…»
By Christophe Blot, JĂ©rĂ´me Creel, Paul Hubert, Fabien Labondance and Xavier Ragot
Rising inequality in income and wealth has become a key issue in discussions of economic policy, and the topic has inserted itself into evaluations of the impact of monetary policy in the US and Japan, the precursors of todayâ€™s massive quantitative easing programmes (QE). The question is thus posed as to whether the ECBâ€™s QE policy has had or will have redistributive effects.
In a paper prepared for the European Parliament, Blot et al. (2015)Â point out that the empirical literature gives rise to two contradictory conclusions. In the US, the Fedâ€™s base rate cuts tend to reduce inequality. Conversely, in Japan an expansionary QE type policy tends to increase inequality. So whatâ€™s the situation in Europe? suite…»
By Xavier Ragot, President of the OFCE, CNRS-PSE, together with Mathilde Le Moigne, ENS
If the future of the euro zone does indeed depend on political cooperation between France and Germany, then economic divergences between the two countries should be a cause for concern. These divergences need to be analysed, with particular attention to three specific areas: the unemployment rate, the trade balance and the public debt. Germanyâ€™s unemployment rate is falling steadily; in June it was under the 5% mark, which represents almost full employment, whereas the French rate is over 10%. Germanyâ€™s low unemployment rate does not however reflect strong consumption by German households, but rather the countryâ€™s export capacity. While France continues to run a negative trade balance (importing more than it exports), Germany is now the worldâ€™s leading exporter, ahead of China, with a trade surplus that will run close to 8% in 2015. As for the public deficit, it will be around 3.8% in France in 2015, while Germany is now generating a surplus. This has impressive consequences for the way the public debt is changing in the two countries. In 2010 they were similar, at around 80% of GDP, but in 2014 Germanyâ€™s public debt fell below 75%, and is continuing to decline, while Franceâ€™s debt has continued to grow, and has now hit 97%. This kind of gap is unprecedented in recent times, and is fraught with mounting tension over the conduct of monetary policy. suite…»
by Analysis and Forecasting Department (France team)
The unemployment figures for the month of July 2015 indicate a slight fall (-1900) in the number of people registering in category A. There is still too much uncertainty about monthly changes in enrolment at Franceâ€™s PĂ´le Emploi job centre to conclude that there has been a lasting improvement in the state of the labour market. However, the increase observed since January 2015 (+50,900 registered in category A) is smaller in scale than the figures recorded for this same period during the past three years (+128,500 on average for the first seven months of the previous three years). It is comparable to the situation in 2010-2011 (+44,300 on average in the first seven months of both years), which were years of renewed growth. suite…»
The duration of the Greek crisis and the harshness of the series of austerity plans that have been imposed on it to straighten out its public finances and put it in a position to meet its obligations to its creditors have upset European public opinion and attracted great comment. The hard-fought agreement reached on Monday 13 July at the summit of the euro zone heads of state and government, along with the demands made prior to the Greek referendum on 5 July, which were rejected by a majority of voters, contain conditions that are so unusual and so contrary to State sovereignty as we are used to conceiving of it that they shocked many of Europeâ€™s citizens and strengthened the arguments of eurosceptics, who see all this as proof that European governance is being exercised contrary to democracy.
There is still a lot of uncertainty around the possible paths that Greece can follow in the near feature. One possible path, which may be still averted by the current negotiation, is that Greece will default on the upcoming debt obligations (see graphics hereÂ for a detailed list of the upcoming Greek debt deadlines), thus spiraling into a currency and credit crisis and possibly resulting in a â€śGrexitâ€ť.
The Greek debt crisis shares some similarity with the Latin American debt crisis of the 1990s and early 2000s. In both Greece and Latin America, debts are mostly bond debts or debts to international institutions. Similarly to Greece, many Latin American countries had become more and more open in the decades before the crisis. The series of financial crises started with Mexicoâ€™s December 1994 collapse. It was followed by Argentinaâ€™s $95 billion default (the largest in history at that time, although later on Argentina resumed some of the payments), Brazilâ€™s financial crisis (1998-2002) and Uruguayâ€™s default (2002). suite…»