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Articles avec le tag ‘France’

PLF 2016 : la longue route vers les 3 %

par Raul Sampognaro

Le Projet de loi de Finances 2016 (PLF 2016) poursuit l’ajustement budgétaire entamé en 2010. Cet ajustement a permis notamment de réduire le déficit public de 3,3 points de PIB en l’espace de cinq ans, passant de 7,2 points de PIB en 2009 à 3,9 points en 2014, alors même que les conditions conjoncturelles ont pesé sur les finances publiques[1]. La baisse du déficit devrait se poursuivre au cours de la période 2015-2017. Notre dernière prévision table sur un déficit à 3,7 % en 2015 puis à 3,2 % en 2016 et 2,7 % en 2017, année où le déficit passerait en-dessous de la « barre des 3 % ». Cette trajectoire est légèrement plus favorable à celle retenue par le gouvernement[2] dans le PLF 2016 en raison d’une reprise de l’activité que nous attendons un peu plus dynamique. Au final, il se sera écoulé dix ans entre le moment où la France a franchi le seuil des 3 % et le moment où elle serait revenue en-dessous. suite…»

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La dévaluation fiscale française ou quand l’Achille français s’évertue à rattraper la tortue allemande

par Sarah Guillou

Dans les années 1980, dans le cadre du mécanisme de change du SME, la France avait à plusieurs reprises procédé à des réalignements monétaires assimilables à des dévaluations – en 1981, en 1982, en 1983 puis en 1986. L’Allemagne de son côté adoptait une rigoureuse – déjà ! – stratégie de désinflation compétitive qui, disait-on alors, conduisait à discipliner ses entreprises qui ne pouvaient compter sur des avantages temporaires obtenus par la dévaluation monétaire rendant les produits exportés compétitifs. Elles étaient contraintes de procéder aux investissements qui construisaient leur compétitivité hors-prix future. Ce qu’elles ont fait … suite…»

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Doit-on se réjouir de la baisse du taux de chômage en fin d’année 2013 ?

par Bruno Ducoudré et Eric Heyer

Chaque trimestre, l’Insee publie le taux de chômage au sens du Bureau International du Travail (BIT) : pour le 4ème trimestre 2013, en France métropolitaine, celui-ci est en baisse de 0,1 point, soit 41 000 chômeurs en moins. Parallèlement, chaque mois paraît le nombre de demandeurs d’emploi inscrits à Pôle Emploi : au cours du 4e trimestre 2013, cette source indique une hausse de 23 000 du nombre de demandeurs d’emploi inscrits en catégorie A. Dans un cas le chômage baisse, dans l’autre il augmente, ce qui ne permet pas de poser un diagnostic clair quant à l’évolution du chômage sur la fin d’année. suite…»

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Growth in the 4th quarter of 2013, but …

By Hervé Péléraux

According to the OFCE’s leading indicator, the French economy has grown by 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2013. This result, which was anticipated, reflects the improvement in business surveys seen for about a year now. However, does this mark the return of GDP to a path of higher long-term growth? It is still too early to say.

The improvement in the business surveys anticipated the interruption in the second recession that took place in the first half of 2011. The national accounts then validated the signal emitted by the surveys, with renewed growth of 0.6% in the second quarter of 2013 (Table). GDP did of course fall again in the third quarter (-0.1%), but on average over the last two quarters there was growth of approximately 0.2% per quarter, a rate that, though very moderate, was still positive.

At the same time, the leading indicator, which aims to arrive at an estimate of GDP growth in the very short term by translating the cyclical information contained in the surveys, also pointed to a slow recovery in activity: on average over the last two quarters, growth was estimated at 0.1%, a figure that is slightly under the assessment of the national accounts.


In the last few months, the uncontested growth in the confidence of private agents has enhanced the outlook for the end of 2013: the debate is now focusing on the possibility for the French economy to break through a turning point upwards and for growth to settle in at a level higher than the pace of long-term growth (0.35% per quarter).

Based on past experience, when the indicator has sent out warning signs of a turning point in the economic cycle, the signal issued for the fourth quarter of 2013 is indicating that the long-term growth rate of the French economy is being crossed (Figure). This signal is fragile: the still very partial information on the first quarter of 2014, i.e. the business surveys for January, point towards the growth rate falling below its potential. The possibility of a real lasting recovery that is able to create jobs and reverse the trend in unemployment is thus still very uncertain.



Note on the leading indicator:

The leading indicator aims to forecast the quarterly growth rate for French GDP two quarters beyond the latest available data. The components of the indicator are selected from survey data sets that are rapidly available and unrevised. The selection of the data series is made on an econometric basis, starting from the business surveys carried out in different productive sectors (industry, construction, services, retail) and among consumers. Two series related to the international environment are also significant: the rate of growth of the real exchange rate of the euro against the dollar, and the real growth rate of oil prices.

Some components are at least two quarters in advance and as such can be used to predict GDP growth. Others are coincidental, or are not sufficiently advanced to make a forecast two quarters ahead. These series need to be forecast, but over a short-term horizon that never exceeds four months.

The leading indicator is calculated at the beginning of each month, shortly after the publication of the business and consumer surveys.


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Important change of course at the Elysée Palace. Austerity is no longer the priority

By Xavier Timbeau, Twitter: @XTimbeau

(published in Le Monde on Thursday 16 January 2014, p. 17)

When he was elected François Hollande made fiscal discipline his main goal. The 2008 crisis was continuing to have an impact on the developed economies; in the face of a sovereign debt crisis, Europe’s governments had been implementing austerity measures that were to cause a second recession, a “double dip”, to use the language of economists. For example, when François Hollande came to power, the situation in France seemed disastrous: the public deficit was 5.2%, with a rise in the public debt of more than 600 billion euros since 2008 along with a 2-point rise in unemployment (to 9.6% of the workforce). The pressure was intense, and, the euro zone states were falling like dominos, with Spain and Italy in danger of following Greece, Portugal and Ireland. In this context, it seemed that only budgetary discipline could help Germany to support a faltering euro zone. suite…»

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TOFLIT18: for a better understanding of the French economy

By Loïc Charles and Guillaume Daudin*

Recurrent questions on our economies are, to quote a few: Which factors and actors are key for economic development? What private and public behaviors are particularly growth-enhancing? How important are institutions and policies in shaping trade, in promoting innovations and then growth?…There are different ways of enhancing our knowledge to answer these questions. The first way consists in laboratory experiments where a small-scale environment is created in order to understand “how the different pieces of the system work and interact” This is particularly appropriate for learning on social preferences and dealing with welfare issues. But, as soon as questions related to growth – such those mentioned above – are concerned, laboratory experiments do not appear very suitable. One other way of enhancing our knowledge consists in analyzing what happens today in our country and, possibly, to carry out international comparisons in order to disentangle between what is “good” and what is “bad” for the economy. Once one is engaged in that direction, why stop at comparison across space? Analyzing what happened several decades or centuries ago and to learn from these past experiences for the current period can also be very fruitful. suite…»

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Is the French tax-benefit system really redistributive?

By Henri Sterdyniak [1]

France has set up benefits such as RSA income support, PPE in-work negative income tax, CMU universal health care, the minimum pension, housing allowances, and exemptions from social security contributions for low-wage workers. From the other side, it has a tax on large fortunes; social insurance and family contributions apply to the entire wage; and capital income is hit by social security contributions and subject to income tax. France’s wealthy are complaining that taxation is confiscatory, and a few are choosing to become tax exiles.

Despite this, some people argue that the French tax-benefit (or socio-fiscal) system is not very redistributive. suite…»

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Le système socio-fiscal français est-il vraiment redistributif ?

par Henri Sterdyniak [1]

La France a mis en place le RSA, la PPE, la CMU, le minimum vieillesse, les allocations logement, les exonérations de cotisations sociales pour les bas salaires. En sens inverse, elle a conservé un impôt sur les grandes fortunes ; les cotisations sociales maladie et famille portent sur la totalité du salaire ; les revenus du capital supportent les prélèvements sociaux et sont soumis à l’IR. Les plus riches se plaignent d’une fiscalité confiscatoire ; quelques-uns  choisissent l’exil fiscal. suite…»

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The trend in unemployment: no reversal in sight

By Bruno Ducoudré

The government has announced that the trend in unemployment will be reversed by the end of 2013. The number of jobseekers registered in category A with France’s Pôle Emploi job centre at the end of September increased by 60,000. The number fell during August by 50,000, mainly due to a “bug” in sending SMS texts, which led to an unusually large rise in the number of terminations due to the claimant’s failure to stay up to date (up 72,000 over the previous month). An increase in enrolments for the month of September due to the re-registration of jobless people who had been unduly terminated was therefore expected. The number of jobseekers registered in category A thus rose by 10,000 between July and September 2013, which meant that the trend is still upwards but at a more moderate pace than earlier in the year. These large variations in the very short term in the numbers registered with the ANPE job centre make it impossible to give a precise idea of upcoming trends in employment and unemployment. Our analysis of the labour market up to 2014, which is set out in the latest OFCE forecasts of October 2013, suggests that no significant improvement in unemployment is expected by the end of 2014. suite…»

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France: less austerity, more growth

By Eric Heyer

This text summarizes the OFCE’s 2013-2014 forecast for the French economy.

In 2013, the French economy should experience annual average growth of 0.2%, which means that by the end of the year its level of production should return to the level of six years earlier, at the end of 2007. This mediocre performance is very far from the trajectory that an economy recovering from a crisis should be on.

The French economy did however have great potential for recovery: average spontaneous growth of about 2.6% per annum over the period 2010-2013 was possible and would have allowed France to make up the output gap accumulated in 2008-2009. But this “recovery” has been hampered mainly by the introduction of budget savings plans in France and across Europe. For the single year 2013, this fiscal strategy will cut economic activity in France by 2.4 GDP points. suite…»

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