24 April 2024

TIME FOR A RECKONING 2024-2025 Outlook for the French economy

Elliot Aurissergues, Bruno Coquet, Magali Dauvin, Ombeline Jullien de Pommerol, Pierre Madec, Raul Sampognaro

French growth is expected to reach an annual average of 0.5% in 2024. This downward revision of our growth forecast from 0.8% in October 2023 is due mainly to weaker than expected growth for 2024 (ultimately -0.15 GDP point lower for 2024 than previously forecast) and a new 10 billion euro fiscal adjustment program, whose impact on GDP is estimated at -0.2 GDP point in 2024. In 2025, French growth is forecast at 1.2%, despite the positive effects of lower interest rates (0.2 GDP point)...